Crude Oil Prices Extend Losses as OPEC+ Plans Output Hike and Geopolitical Risks Ease

Crude oil prices continued to fall in Asian trade on Tuesday, driven by expectations of higher oil production and easing geopolitical tensions. The decline adds to Monday’s sharp drop, raising concerns about an oversupplied market.

Brent and WTI Prices Continue to Slide

As of 22:05 ET (02:05 GMT),

• Brent crude futures (November delivery) fell 0.5% to $67.65 per barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 0.4% to $63.19 per barrel.

Both benchmarks plunged over 3% on Monday, their biggest single-day drop this month, and are on track to end September slightly lower.

OPEC+ Plans Increase in Crude Oil Production

The market was weighed down by reports that the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is planning another output hike of at least 1,37,000 barrels per day in November.

The group will meet online on October 5 to finalise the decision. This move follows a production increase already planned for October and signals a shift from deep output cuts to gradual supply growth as members focus on protecting market share.

U.S.-Brokered Gaza Peace Plan Lowers War Premium

Crude oil markets also reacted to political developments. U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a 20-point framework to end the Gaza war.

The plan includes:

• An immediate ceasefire,
• Release of hostages,
• Hamas disarmament,
• Transition to technocratic governance under international oversight.

While Hamas has not agreed yet, the announcement eased some geopolitical risk premiums that had been boosting oil prices since the conflict began last year.

Adding to bearish sentiment, Iraq resumed crude exports from the Kurdistan region to Turkey after more than two years of suspension.

Weak Chinese Data Adds Pressure on Crude Oil Prices

Fresh data from China added to demand concerns:

• Official manufacturing PMI showed contraction for the sixth straight month in September.
• The services sector also showed signs of slowing.

Although a private survey painted a slightly more optimistic picture, the overall trend of sluggish growth in the world’s second-largest economy is weighing on oil demand.

Read more: Today (Sep 30) is the Last Day to switch from NPS to UPS.

Conclusion

Oil prices are under pressure from rising supply expectations, resumed Iraqi exports, and slowing demand from China. While geopolitical tensions are easing, analysts expect oil to remain weak heading into the final quarter of 2025 as the market shifts into surplus mode.

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